I look at the CNN electoral map, and confusion ensues. Perhaps it’s just not updated, but the wisdom of these metrics eludes me. Here’s a breakdown of the strange CNN cartography:

Safe Obama-153 (CA, IL, NY, VT, MA, CT, RI, MD, HI)
Safe McCain-125 (AZ, UT, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE, KA, OK, TX, MS, AL, KY, TN, SC, AL)

Leaning Obama-37 (OR, WA, ME, NJ)
Leaning McCain-69 (MT, NM, AK, LO, GA, NC, WV, IN)

Toss Up-154 (NV, CO, MO, IA, MN, WI, MI, OH, VA, PA, FL)

First off, what separates “toss-up” from “lean”? It’s currently blurrier than the line between “gaffe” and “flub.” Obama is ahead by 13% in the latest Wisconsin poll, but somehow Farvetown is completely up in the air (Yes, I know that Kerry took WI by the slimmest of margins, but still, 13 points!). The same can be said for Meen-ah-soh-tah, where Obama leads by 15 points in the latest Rasmussen.

New Mexico is probably a T-up, though Obama leads by 9% in the last Rasmussen poll. Somehow it lies in McCain’s lean column. Some of McCain’s safe states seem quite poachable. South Carolina, and some of the oft forgotten plains states are currently competitive (It’d be nice if I could actually find recent polling from the urban futurevilles of North Dakota).

And there is one big decision that helps Obama’s numbers. The gator state is in the T-up column, when it should really be spotted to McCain—maybe even as a “safe” state.

So what does this all mean? Is CNN trying to augment the argument for a close ‘horserace?’ Are they just lagging on their numbers? Are they over-relying on the 2004 map? Do I need to get out more?

This entry was posted on Saturday, June 14th, 2008 at 6:53 pm and is filed under News, Random Thoughts, Religion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.